The nerds giveth and the nerds taketh away

Alex, Kansas City, KS — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 13:10:07 GMT

Will,
The guy is right...
The meteorologists here are laughable, at best. Why do they even bother beyond 24 hours? Inaccurate forecasts DO get noticed and it hurts their credibility.
What if the news anchor reported the news with only 75% accuracy? Instant unemployment. Not so for meteorologists, where fuzzy science is their milieu.

The nerds giveth and the nerds taketh away

David, IL — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 14:34:14 GMT

I've always wondered if "the same as yesterday" wouldn't be a more accurate weather prediction than anything else?

The nerds giveth and the nerds taketh away

Michael B, Norman, OK — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 16:21:41 GMT

Alex from KC: If the news anchors had to predict the news for the rest of the week, I would be surprised if they got anywhere near 75% accuracy. Forecasting is an inexact science, but it is a science. Google "chaos theory" and "Edward Lorenz" for an explanation of why longer range predictions are less likely to be accurate.

David from IL: That's called persistence forecasting, and yes it could be called more "accurate" over a given span of time. But if there is a significant weather event moving in sometime in the next 24-26 hours, would you rather the weatherman ignored it and predicted more sunshine tomorrow, or told you that there is an x% chance of rain, even if he was off by a half-day or so on the timing?

In spite of the obstacles, weather models & forecasts are constantly improving, particularly in the area of severe storm/tornado warnings. The weak point now is the "last mile" - alerting the public that a tornado is imminent, especially in the middle of the night. If they don't have the TV or radio on, and can't hear the sirens, they are in trouble. Having a NOAA weather radio in your home can help with that, since it reponds to local watches/warnings with audible and visual alerts.

Disclaimer and disclosure: I am not a meteorologist, but I work closely with them as a contract systems engineer for the National Weather Service.

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Patrick, Greer, SC — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 16:28:23 GMT

As far as the six-wheeled car goes, designers at Tyrrel F1 had this figured out in the seventies. It was so effective that F1 banned it after only a few races.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyrrell_P34

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George S, Oakland, CA — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 16:28:59 GMT

6 wheel sports cars aren't new, they date back to at least 1976 when the Tyrell team raced a 6 wheel Formula one car - see wikipedia here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:ScheckterJody1976-07-31Tyrrell-FordP34.jpg

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Michael B, Norman, OK — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 16:35:59 GMT

I just scanned through the comments on the original article, and there are some good ones from actual meteorologists who explain things much better than I did. #125 from Tom H. is particularly informative.

The nerds giveth and the nerds taketh away

Generalist, Spokane WA — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 16:47:37 GMT

From what I've seen, even a simple newspaper article may not be 100% accurate. I've been at events where I know something about the topic and I recognize the reporter covering the event. About a third of the article was completely wrong, a third was subject to interpretation and a third was completely accurate. If you are generous, that yields a 66.6666...% accuracy rating. If the 'subject to interpretation' rate is considered to be on the inaccurate side, it drops to 33.3333...% accuracy.

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Jeff, Seattle, Wash — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 17:06:07 GMT

I'm glad you linked to the Robert Rich discussion. So much has been made about established artists making money from direct downloads over the internet, but by-and-large, these artists have already benefited from an older, established system that helped build their profile in the first place. This gives a more realistic perspective on the good and bad that comes with direct access.

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Darby, Bothell, WA — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 17:15:55 GMT

I know the price of everything is going up, but why is this the first time I've heard mention of actual rationing by stores? I do usually think of "food rationing" as being government imposed. The use of the term in the article, while technically OK, seems a bit sensational. Interesting.

The nerds giveth and the nerds taketh away

Patrick, Chicago, IL — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 17:45:35 GMT

The weather forecast article is interesting, no doubt, but let's not forget we're talking about predictions, not reporting. (For Alex, KC -If your local news anchor needed to predict 7 days out whether there was going to be a robbery, I imagine they wouldn't be very accurate either.)

And shouldn't the precipitation measure be based more loosely? The forecaster is giving a percentage b/c of the relative uncertainty no? One of the commenters on Freakonics blog put it better - "if for all the times So-and-so predicted 30%, it rained 23% of the time, he’d be off by 7% for that prediction."

The nerds giveth and the nerds taketh away

Dave, IN — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 17:49:42 GMT

It's always seemed to me that TV meteorologists have the only career in the world where they can be utterly, completely wrong on a regular basis, and still keep their jobs.

Also, the narrator on "I'm Gonna Git You, Spamma"? Tay Zonday, AKA the Chocolate Rain guy.

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Salm Gai — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 19:39:44 GMT

ummm... the title of the article is completely misleading, and i have absolutely no idea what kind of a point the author is trying to make (if any at all). in fact the whole article seems like a collection of random unrelated things thrown together to meet a deadline. what is going on in this article?!

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Trixi, Bellingham, WA — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 21:56:27 GMT

"It's always seemed to me that TV meteorologists have the only career in the world where they can be utterly, completely wrong on a regular basis, and still keep their jobs."

Or President of the United States, so it seems.

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KM — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 01:07:58 GMT

Salm, the point is not to have an article, but a series of "clicks"... random things that are popular or ar attracting interest on the web... the headline is typically just the first thing on his mind I suppose, but not typically an indicator of all that will be included.

I happen to love it.

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Will Femia — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 01:28:11 GMT

Salm, Clicked (this article is actually an entry is a series of posts that constitute a blog called Clicked) is actually a bit of an odd duck. The idea is to help my readers follow Web trends by sharing the things I clicked in the course of doing so myself.

What's problematic with following this style of reporting is that while it's typical of blogging, it doesn't suit the headline/article format the rest of msnbc.com follows. Generally I try to put something meatier at the top of an entry to justify the headline but really it could have the same headline every time: What's hot on the Web.

To KM and other regular readers, to the credit of the msnbc.com tech editors they've been trying to give Clicked a little more attention on the front page of the Tech section, in spite of the squareness of this peg. New readers unfamiliar with what the heck is going on here will likely be common for a while.

The nerds giveth and the nerds taketh away

Steve, AR — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:52:44 GMT

Any idiot can look at a satellite image of an approaching front and predict rain within the next 24 hours.

Predictions beyond 48-72 hours are no better than guesses. I hesitate to even call them educated guesses, they are so seldom correct, so why even make them.

The nerds giveth and the nerds taketh away

Gabe — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 13:44:36 GMT

ya Tania Derveaux is part of the Movielol website that also involves themselves in political issues. Also as a part of the Athene youtube series.

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Internet TV — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 13:54:58 GMT

In relation to the sex 4 support of net neutrality girl, she also is alleging to commit suicide in 90 days. Not sure why, but she has a page on that too.

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Lee Barberra, Hollywood, CA — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 15:13:02 GMT

The Wonder Twins never had rings - a popular misconception.

The nerds giveth and the nerds taketh away

Chris M, Buckeye AZ — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 23:10:49 GMT

abc15 here in Phoenix HAS been advertising themselves as "the most accurate forecast" as determined by some 3 party review.